LED lighting is one of the fastest growing
markets for electronic components of all shapes and sizes. John Cafferkey,
marketing manager, Cambridge Nanotherm, predicts new applications such as
lightbulbs which could be wireless hotspots and highlights the importance of
thermal management in LED design.
What are
your predictions for the general LED market in 2016?
The view we’re getting from our customers is that growth will be driven by the
general lighting segment. This is a big change from a few years ago when growth
was dominated by the back light TV segment.
One interesting statistic that market analysts Strategies Unlimited uncovered
is the rise of high power and super-high power LEDs. This goes against the
perceived wisdom that mid power LEDs would dominate general lighting and speaks
a lot about the benefits of chip-on-board (COB) LED device.
These are classed as super high power and are set to enjoy the biggest gains as
a percentage of the market, especially in the lighting fixtures market. There
are a number of reasons for their success – not least that they are much
simpler to work with compared to SMD packaged LEDs.
What general trends do you predict we’re going to see in the 2016 thermal
management market, and how do these relate to what’s happening in the LED
market as a whole?
Thermal management of LEDs is stepping up with the rise in high and super high
power LEDs. Market analysts Yole predict that ceramics such as aluminium
nitride will become increasingly prevalent in COB LED and high power packaged
LEDs as power densities continue to increase.
What new
LED technologies do you see emerging or growing in popularity in 2016?
One of the buzzwords to come out of the LED industry in 2015 was
“human-centric”, i.e. using light to improve the performance and well-being of
people. This is being seen by many in the industry as the LED’s killer USP, as
it’s only possible with the control of wavelength and light quality that can be
achieved by using LEDs.
As an example the use of different wavelengths of light to help balance
children’s moods – warmer light when it’s quiet time and colder, bluer light
when they need stimulating, has been trialed in primary schools. This taps into
our hardwired circadian rhythms and is one to watch for the coming year.
The controlability of LEDs is relevant for car headlights. With LEDs it’s
possible to form light in such a way that the road can be lit up as if with a
full beam without dazzling oncoming traffic. This has big implications for car
safety and is starting to be rolled out in higher end car marques.
Possibly the most profound change we are seeing is the introduction of
additional technology in LED modules. Lighting is getting smarter with
communication modules such as Bluetooth and ZigBee enabling
smartphone-controllable lights as part of an IoT ecosystem.
One very interesting technology that’s being developed is Li-Fi – delivering
data using the visible spectrum rather than radio waves at speeds upwards of
1Gbit/s. This can be built into LED modules so lightbulbs could soon become
wireless hotspots.
How will
these affect the thermal management market?
Clearly the increase in power required for devices such as car headlights will
need more sophisticated thermal management, but there’s also a requirement for
the various device-on-board modules – many of these devices need to be operated
at relatively low temperatures so maintaining a consistent (low) temperature is
critical.
Do you foresee any new and interesting technologies emerging in the thermal
management market? For example new materials or approaches?
The thermal management market is an area where there’s always a lot of
research. There’s been a move by the aluminium nitride manufactures to create
more cost effective (but thermally less efficient) material and there’re always
incremental developments in MCPCB dielectrics.
Our latest product, Nanotherm DM, which is a more rugged alternative to
aluminium nitride, recently won the Elektra Awards best new LED product.
Do you
forsee any existing but underexploited thermal management technologies growing
significantly in popularity in 2016? Why?
The rise of the filament bulb! There was a notable increase in the number of
filament style LED bulbs on show at LED events in 2015. We expect to see these
increasing in popularity as they offer a perfect form/fit/function replacement
for incandescent bulbs.
Expect to see increasingly funky filament designs on the market in 2016. The
filaments in question are rows of small LEDs mounted on formable dielectric
substrates with good thermal conductivity to keep the LEDs cool. This presents
some interesting options for thermally effective flexible substrates.
What LED
applications do you think are going to be the biggest factor in driving the need
for effective thermal management technologies?
The rise in super high power COB LED devices and the high power packaged LED
market is ramping up demand for ceramic substrates. Analysts are suggesting
supply is close to maximum capacity, which means pricing and availability for
companies without guarantee agreements are going to be challenged in terms of
making product deliveries. This will provide a perfect window of opportunity
for competing materials to enter the market.
Which
LED applications do you think will see a downturn in 2016?
The LED TV market is in decline – the market has hit saturation point and with
new technologies such as OLED competing for the upgrade and replacement market
it’s a shrinking pool. The same is true of screens and backlights for smart
phones.
Of the various ways of mounting LEDs (flip chip, chip 0n board, etc.), which do
you think is going to see the most significant growth in 2016, and why?
Chip Scale Packaging is really taking off. This approach (similar to a flip chip)
removes the requirement for level 1 packaging. The CSP LEDs are simply mounted
directly onto a PCB to make a COB device. Chip scale packaging ticks all the
boxes of smaller form factor, better performance, improved reliability and, in
theory, reduced cost.
By fabricating chip scale packages with integrated optics it also allows chip
manufacturers to secure higher average selling price for their products.
How is
this going to affect the world of thermal management?
It will move the requirement away from L1 packaging substrates to L2 modules
(basically metal and ceramic PCBs). In luminaire design, more attention is
going to have to be paid to the selection and deployment of these systems
components as a larger portion of the LED chip construction loses its
customizability. This will naturally have a snowball effect in driving the
focus over towards system thermal management and cost reduction.
Do you
have any general or specific predictions regarding the pricing of LEDs and
thermal management technologies in 2016?
Expect prices to continue to drop as manufacture transitions to Asia. LED
manufacturers are looking to reduce cost by cutting the costs of packaging
process with CSP and ultimately wafer level packaging. LED manufacturers are
looking at increasing the volumes – Osram are looking at new production plants
in Malaysia for example.
The very considerable and strongly protected IP content of LEDs seems to be
being effective at preventing copycat manufacturing from flooding Western
markets, as has happened with so many other commoditised industries. A
combination of new technology, lower cost manufacturing and economies of scale
should help to drive down the overall lumens/$ cost and ultimately this is what
will drive mass user adoption.
Anything
else you would predict will happen in the thermal management industry in 2016?
The lighting industry really wants to find a way of adding value to luminaires
so they do more than simply produce light at the flick of a switch. This could
be by dispensing with physical luminaires to make “light walls”, or adding
technology functions such as circadian rhythm control or Li-Fi. At the moment
there is no clear direction, but at some point, something will suddenly become
fashionable and that will be the market driver. Spotting this breakout to get
in at the beginning is going to be tough, but fascinating for those without a
horse in the race.
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